Could Fragrance be the Next Sneaker?
I swear the streets of NYC smell a little different these days.
The era of the signature scent is truly upon us, and fragrance is hitting its cultural moment. An emerging subculture of dedicated fragrance-fans, “fragheads”, are bringing new audiences and levels of dedication to the category. For the first time in history, men's fragrances have outpaced women's in the United States.1 And teen boys' spend on fragrance is up 26% year-over-year.2 An unforeseen new level of interest.
This explosive level of engagement reminds me of the sneaker zeitgeist. Similar to sneakers, which evolved from practical footwear to high-stakes collectibles, scent is undergoing a powerful transformation from afterthought to self-expressive obsession. Folks are beginning to chase bottles the way they once lined up for limited-edition Jordans, and entirely new cohorts are marching gleefully into a category that they were once disengaged from.
If I was a beauty business, I'd be laser focused on how to ensure this current trend becomes the next permanent frontier of self-expression, in the same way that sneakers did. So what lessons might we learn from sneakers, so that fragrance might secure its seat as part of the cultural conversation?
1. Hype Sells—But Substance Sustains
Limited editions, exclusive collabs, and impossible-to-source grails keep sneaker collectors hungry. Fragrance brands are starting to catch on, building hype via limited-edition scents and unexpected celebrity partnerships/collabs — but true longevity in the space requires more than just scarcity, it demands quality and innovation. Just as sneakerheads know the difference between a classic Air Jordan 1 and a forgettable release, fragrance enthusiasts can distinguish between a well-composed scent and a gimmicky cash grab. The lesson? Build hype, but back it up with products that stand the test of time.
2. Story > Style
The story behind a product can transform its potential from an object to a historical artifact (think the Safari print on the Air Max 1). And innovative fragrance will need to tap into storytelling in the same way. The industry needs to dig deeper, connecting consumers to the product beyond just a desire to “smell good.” Limited releases with deeper cultural meaning and storytelling-driven origin stories can elevate scent from a simple accessory to a form of identity.
3. Community is King
Community is king for emerging subculture. Sneakerheads were able to thrive by creating spaces where they could share knowledge, trade product, and show off their collections to other shoe lovers. And while the fragrance community is nascent, it’s catching up: Reddit threads and niche scent forums are beginning to foster this type of connection. Brands that work to encourage discourse, host events, or create space for influencers and novices to interact organically will build lasting consumer loyalty. The key is connection: not just selling bottles, but empowering a movement.
4. Invest in Aftermarkets to Keep the Obsession Alive
A major part of sneaker culture is the aftermarket. Whether it’s StockX or GOAT, enthusiasts are looking for space to buy, sell, verify, and trade rare pairs long after their initial release. Fragrance is beginning to see a similar trend via resale sites, decant swaps, and secondhand fragrance markets, with enthusiasts hunting down discontinued scents, flipping rare bottles, and trading small samples to experiment without full commitment. If fragrance brands want to become part of the true fraghead culture, they’ll need to embrace aftermarket behavior, and quickly — exploring offerings like resale verification or limited edition restocks.
5. Empower Customization
Sneaker culture thrives on custom flair. The global custom sneakers market is projected to reach $2.82 billion by 2025. Experiences like Nike By You or bespoke sneaker painting allow enthusiasts to create looks that are uniquely theirs. The fragrance world can take a page from this book by offering more ways for consumers to tweak or personalize scents, via custom layering, mix-and-match scent enhancers, or from-the-ground up scent+bottle design.